covid-19 severity
CNN-LSTM Hybrid Model for AI-Driven Prediction of COVID-19 Severity from Spike Sequences and Clinical Data
Cheohen, Caio, Gomes, Vinnícius M. S., da Silva, Manuela L.
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the critical need for accurate prediction of disease severity to optimize healthcare resource allocation and patient management. The spike protein, which facilitates viral entry into host cells, exhibits high mutation rates, particularly in the receptor-binding domain, influencing viral pathogenicity. Artificial intelligence approaches, such as deep learning, offer promising solutions for leveraging genomic and clinical data to predict disease outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop a hybrid CNN-LSTM deep learning model to predict COVID-19 severity using spike protein sequences and associated clinical metadata from South American patients. Methods: We retrieved 9,570 spike protein sequences from the GISAID database, of which 3,467 met inclusion criteria after standardization. The dataset included 2,313 severe and 1,154 mild cases. A feature engineering pipeline extracted features from sequences, while demographic and clinical variables were one-hot encoded. A hybrid CNN-LSTM architecture was trained, combining CNN layers for local pattern extraction and an LSTM layer for long-term dependency modeling. Results: The model achieved an F1 score of 82.92%, ROC-AUC of 0.9084, precision of 83.56%, and recall of 82.85%, demonstrating robust classification performance. Training stabilized at 85% accuracy with minimal overfitting. The most prevalent lineages (P.1, AY.99.2) and clades (GR, GK) aligned with regional epidemiological trends, suggesting potential associations between viral genetics and clinical outcomes. Conclusion: The CNN-LSTM hybrid model effectively predicted COVID-19 severity using spike protein sequences and clinical data, highlighting the utility of AI in genomic surveillance and precision public health. Despite limitations, this approach provides a framework for early severity prediction in future outbreaks.
Classifying the evolution of COVID-19 severity on patients with combined dynamic Bayesian networks and neural networks
Quesada, David, Larrañaga, Pedro, Bielza, Concha
When we face patients arriving to a hospital suffering from the effects of some illness, one of the main problems we can encounter is evaluating whether or not said patients are going to require intensive care in the near future. This intensive care requires allotting valuable and scarce resources, and knowing beforehand the severity of a patients illness can improve both its treatment and the organization of resources. We illustrate this issue in a dataset consistent of Spanish COVID-19 patients from the sixth epidemic wave where we label patients as critical when they either had to enter the intensive care unit or passed away. We then combine the use of dynamic Bayesian networks, to forecast the vital signs and the blood analysis results of patients over the next 40 hours, and neural networks, to evaluate the severity of a patients disease in that interval of time. Our empirical results show that the transposition of the current state of a patient to future values with the DBN for its subsequent use in classification obtains better the accuracy and g-mean score than a direct application with a classifier.
Self-supervised edge features for improved Graph Neural Network training
Sehanobish, Arijit, Ravindra, Neal G., van Dijk, David
Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have been extensively used to extract meaningful representations from graph structured data and to perform predictive tasks such as node classification and link prediction. In recent years, there has been a lot of work incorporating edge features along with node features for prediction tasks. One of the main difficulties in using edge features is that they are often handcrafted, hard to get, specific to a particular domain, and may contain redundant information. In this work, we present a framework for creating new edge features, applicable to any domain, via a combination of self-supervised and unsupervised learning. In addition to this, we use Forman-Ricci curvature as an additional edge feature to encapsulate the local geometry of the graph. We then encode our edge features via a Set Transformer and combine them with node features extracted from popular GNN architectures for node classification in an end-to-end training scheme. We validate our work on three biological datasets comprising of single-cell RNA sequencing data of neurological disease, \textit{in vitro} SARS-CoV-2 infection, and human COVID-19 patients. We demonstrate that our method achieves better performance on node classification tasks over baseline Graph Attention Network (GAT) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models. Furthermore, given the attention mechanism on edge and node features, we are able to interpret the cell types and genes that determine the course and severity of COVID-19, contributing to a growing list of potential disease biomarkers and therapeutic targets.
Gaining insight into SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity using self-supervised edge features and Graph Neural Networks
Sehanobish, Arijit, Ravindra, Neal G., van Dijk, David
Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have been extensively used to extract meaningful representations from graph structured data and to perform predictive tasks such as node classification and link prediction. In recent years, there has been a lot of work incorporating edge features along with node features for prediction tasks. In this work, we present a framework for creating new edge features, via a combination of self-supervised and unsupervised learning which we then use along with node features for node classification tasks. We validate our work on two biological datasets comprising of single-cell RNA sequencing data of \textit{in vitro} SARS-CoV-2 infection and human COVID-19 patients. We demonstrate that our method achieves better performance over baseline Graph Attention Network (GAT) and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models. Furthermore, given the attention mechanism on edge and node features, we are able to interpret the cell types and genes that determine the course and severity of COVID-19, contributing to a growing list of potential disease biomarkers and therapeutic targets.
Using Artificial Intelligence to determine COVID-19 severity
Using data from China and New York, the new mobile app, which has been developed by researchers NYU College of Dentistry, works to help clinicians identify which COVID-19 patients are most at risk of suffering a high severity of the disease. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) is used to help the clinicians assess the risk factors and identify biomarkers from blood tests. The findings have been published Royal Society of Chemistry journal Lab on a Chip. This new mobile app could be a vital tool in the fight against COVID-19 as current tests only test whether someone does or does not have the virus, not how sick they may become. Lead researcher John McDevitt, professor of biomaterials at NYU College of Dentistry, said: "Identifying and monitoring those at risk for severe cases could help hospitals prioritise care and allocate resources like ICU beds and ventilators. Likewise, knowing who is at low risk for complications could help reduce hospital admissions while these patients are safely managed at home. "We want doctors to have both the information they need, and the infrastructure required to save lives.